Well, Georgia is open and cases are rising (Georgia verifies 1K new COVID-19 cases in 24 hours, AJC). Fingers crossed that they don’t pay too high a price for their idiot governor.
The state polling the last two weeks from pollsters I trust over has been clear. Biden is ahead in the states he needs to win… and if this were the polling on E-Day… He’d been in strong shape. *This is where I say we have 6 months to go.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 1, 2020
Education divide propels Biden to lead in PA�Hi-Ed voters: Biden up 55-37%, Low-Ed voters: Trump up 49-43%. pic.twitter.com/uz3rGsATxU
— Harper Polling (@HarperPolling) May 1, 2020
Robert Alexander, David B. Cohen and Lauren Copeland/USA Today:
Ohio isn’t off the table. It’s still a battleground and that’s bad news for Trump.
Republicans were premature to count Ohio as safe for Trump. His struggles there don’t bode well for winning industrial swing states and a second term.
In the Great Lakes Poll of Ohio in March, Trump led Joe Biden 47% to 43%. But a month later, he trails the former vice president 45% to 44%. Support for Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis has dropped from 58% to 50%, and his favorability rating has dropped from 47% to 43%. Trump’s weakness in the Buckeye State is significant as many have considered Ohio safe territory for Trump in 2020.
Trump campaign pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates finds registered voters support sending every voter an absentee ballot application, 64-27%. https://t.co/QONISflFva
— Brandon (@Brand_Allen) May 1, 2020
WaPo:
Why dangerous conspiracy theories about the virus spread so fast — and how they can be stopped
The pandemic has also sparked a wave of more insidious conspiracy theories, such as the false claim that 5G mobile networks spread and worsen the coronavirus, which has led to dozens of instances of arsonists setting fire to cell towers across Europe.
Misinformation spreads online much like a virus itself. Although various types spread slightly differently, the transmission of the 5G conspiracy theory offers some insight into how false claims grow online.
Trump may be a moron, but he knows the Biden story doesn’t help him. There can be no conversation about Biden’s one accuser without revisiting Trump’s 20-plus. https://t.co/6Bb0Cxy2cm
— Michael Freeman (@michaelpfreeman) May 1, 2020
here is a great site for Rona messaging from FrameWorks Institute:
Topic #1: Deploying a common good frame
Topic #2: Making a powerful case for the role of government
Topic #3: Widening the circle of “we”
Topic #4: The power of how during the pandemic
Topic #5: Nonprofits are essential
Topic #6: Talking about the future
Topic #7: Acting now on behalf of tomorrow
Topic #8: Keeping democratic ideals alive during the pandemic
I know lots of Trumpers in Michigan. I know lots of gun owners in Michigan. I know lots of people upset w/ the govt in Michigan. Not one would bring a gun to the statehouse. GOP leaders would be wise to renounce this fringe lest they lose every suburban mom from Oakland to Kent.
— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) May 1, 2020
Perry Bacon Jr/ FiveThirtyEight:
We’ve Got Some Early Trump vs. Biden Swing State Polling
Here’s what we learned looking at every state-level poll conducted in April:
Several polling firms released surveys of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in April. Former President Barack Obama carried all four states in 2012. Trump flipped all four in 2016 (as well as Ohio and Iowa, neither of which has much recent polling.) And Biden appears to lead in all four now. (North Carolina, which has gone Republican in both of the last two cycles, was also polled pretty often in April, with Trump and Biden looking basically tied there.)
New @MeredithCollege poll of North Carolina: Biden 47.4, Trump 40.4 Cunningham 43.5, Tillis 34.3 Cooper 52, Forest 32.1 Full results here;https://t.co/tXnB4HGF93 #ncpol
— Brian Murphy (@MurphinDC) May 1, 2020
This from PRRI is important because it measures something no one else does:
President Trump’s Favorability Ratings Recede from March’s Peak
Largest Declines in Favorability Among Trump Base Groups
Trump’s favorability declined by six percentage points between March and April, from 49% to 43%. The decline was not uniform across demographics, and the largest declines were among some of Trump’s key base groups. These include white Christian groups, specifically white mainline Protestants (-18 percentage points), white Catholics (-12 percentage points), and white evangelical Protestants (-11 percentage points). Large declines are also evident among those living in battleground states (-15 percentage points), those age 65 and over (-14 percentage points), white Americans without a college degree (-12 percentage points), and white women (-9 percentage points).
Seems to me the 65+ vote is gonna be this year’s soccer moms.
Maybe next time make the public message more on “look at the cool stuff we’re passing” and less on partisan sniping. Also have a next time, and soon, and big. https://t.co/HVcmT3lYcJ
— Jonathan Bernstein (@jbview) April 30, 2020
“The Workers Are Being Sacrificed”: As Cases Mounted, Meatpacker JBS Kept People on Crowded Factory Floors
With coronavirus outbreaks at two-thirds of the company’s beef processing plants, employees are asking, “Why didn’t they help protect us?”
A 33-year-old single mother of four, Rodriguez grew up in Greeley, Colorado, home to JBS’s American headquarters and a massive plant that employs 6,000 workers. Rodriguez has worked there, on and off, alongside her father since she was 18. In the photo on her company ID, she has thick black hair and a wide smile, but her happy expression belies the reality at work. She says JBS is like a bad ex-boyfriend who you keep trying to leave, “but you still go back for some reason.”
The costs of meat production: – Thousands of meatpacking workers are being forced to work in unsafe conditions – Millions of animals raised for slaughter will be “euthanized” because plants close – And remember, this virus likely started in a meat markethttps://t.co/tpMFAI5BWn
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) May 1, 2020
Internal GOP poll points to troubling signs for Georgia Republicans
An internal poll conducted for the Georgia House GOP Caucus points to troubling signs for Republican leaders: President Donald Trump is deadlocked with Joe Biden and voters aren’t giving the White House, Gov. Brian Kemp or the Legislature high marks for the coronavirus response.
The poll also suggests trouble for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, showing the former financial executive with 11% of the vote and essentially tied with Democrats Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock. U.S. Rep. Doug Collins leads the November field with 29% of the vote, and outdoes Loeffler among Republicans by a 62-18 margin.
The survey, obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, was conducted by the political polling and research firm Cygnal between April 25-27 and it involved 591 likely voters. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.
For some reason, stoking resentment among aging white voters in declining regions doesn’t play well with voters in younger, growing, multicultural states. TX might not go Dem this time, but the writing is on the wall. Go figure.
— Steven Greenhut (@StevenGreenhut) April 29, 2020
Catherine Rampell/WaPo:
We’re all Zelensky now
Do us a favor though: Before we provide lifesaving equipment, praise the president.
Do us a favor though: Before we rescue the U.S. Postal Service, raise postage prices on the president’s perceived political enemies.
Do us a favor though: Before we assist states in fiscal crisis, reopen your economies when we say so. Oh, and hand over your immigrants.
Trump�s Paycheck Protection Program is a major corruption scandal, but it isn�t being treated as such. Perhaps that�s because its major beneficiaries are corporations�and its most direct victims are some of the most invisible members of society. My latest. https://t.co/kNHUswMMhF
— Jamil Smith (@JamilSmith) April 29, 2020
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